For many students and parents, the journey to college is affected by the stress and uncertainty of high-stakes entrance exams like the SAT and ACT. This reality can lead to years of anxiety, costly test preparation, and a pervasive feeling of not knowing where a student truly stands.

Our recent study at Educational Records Bureau (ERB), focusing on the Comprehensive Testing Program (CTP), aimed to address this uncertainty. The CTP is an assessment widely used by independent schools to measure student achievement and reasoning abilities. By rigorously analyzing the CTP scores of over 1,300 students, we uncovered a remarkably strong, data-backed link between a student’s CTP performance in middle school and their future performance on college entrance exams.

The evidence reveals that ERB assessments can be a powerful, proactive tool for charting a student’s college-readiness trajectory years before junior or senior year. Below are the four most impactful takeaways from our research.

Takeaway 1: 8th-Grade Scores Are More Than Correlated—They Are Powerful Predictors

Our core finding is clear and unambiguous: CTP assessments taken in 8th or 9th grade have a powerful and meaningful relationship with future performance on the PSAT, SAT, and ACT. Nearly all the correlations we found were far greater than .50, a statistical threshold for a “large effect.”

What’s even more compelling is that this strong result is likely an underestimate of the true relationship due to a statistical concept known as “restriction in range.” Our study only included students from competitive independent schools, making the sample group less varied than the general population. Had we included students from a wider range of academic backgrounds, the correlation between the CTP and college entrance exams would likely be even stronger. In other words, our data strongly suggest the CTP is an even better predictor of future performance than these results indicate.

Takeaway 2: The Predictive Power Is Precise Enough to Estimate SAT/ACT Performance

We didn’t stop at identifying a strong correlation. Using multiple regression analysis, we developed a formula that can accurately predict a student’s future SAT and ACT scores based on a profile of their CTP subtest scores. We found that CTP scores are highly correlated with entrance exam scores. When subtests are combined into a profile, the CTP becomes “an even better leading indicator of future performance on ACT and SAT scores.”

For example, our model, based on scores on multiple CTP subtests, predicted a randomly chosen student’s ACT score as approximately 23, with a confidence level interval ranging from 22 to 25. Their actual score years later was 22, falling well within this predicted range. The model was just as effective for the SAT. For that same student, the formula predicted an SAT score of approximately 1150, with a confidence interval ranging from 1120 to 1190. This student’s actual SAT score was 1180. This level of precision broadens the use of CTP from an assessment of learning to a personalized college readiness forecasting tool. 

It’s important to remember an important caveat that these predictions are estimates, a forward-looking projection to help students see if they are on track, not a guarantee of a future score. The accuracy of these predictions, however, is remarkable when we validated them with actual students.

Takeaway 3: SAT and ACT Success Have Different Foundational Recipes

One of the most actionable insights of our study is that the SAT and ACT are not interchangeable. Predictions for each college entrance exam utilize CTP score profiles in slightly different ways. The difference is visible years in advance through CTP subtest scores. The table below shows the specific combination of CTP subtests that best predict success on each exam.

Exam	Key CTP Predictors (in order of importance)
SAT	Mathematics, Vocabulary, Quantitative Reasoning, Reading Comprehension
ACT	Writing Concepts & Skills, Quantitative Reasoning, Reading Comprehension, Writing Mechanics, Mathematics, Vocabulary

If a student’s predicted SAT or ACT score falls below their desired college-readiness benchmark, the CTP subtest profile immediately highlights the specific foundational skills (e.g., Mathematics or Vocabulary) that can be prioritized for academic improvement. This allows for strategic college preparation to begin years earlier than is typical, focusing efforts where they will have the greatest predictive impact. By cross-referencing a student’s CTP subtest profile with the key predictors for each entrance exam, families and educators can also strategically determine which test, the SAT or ACT, is more aligned with the student’s current foundational skills.

Takeaway 4: CTP is More About Foundational Skills Than Course-Specific Knowledge

We also investigated the relationship between CTP scores and Advanced Placement (AP) exams. While CTP scores showed “large correlations” with many AP results, the links were, on average, weaker than connections to the SAT and ACT.

This leads us to conclude that the “CTP is a better predictor of overall college readiness than course-specific performance in AP.” The immense value of the CTP lies in measuring foundational, cross-disciplinary skills—abilities like quantitative reasoning, reading comprehension, and verbal reasoning. While AP courses provide crucial depth, it is these underlying cognitive abilities, measured by the CTP, that are the bedrock of college readiness and power a student’s capacity to succeed across the entire curriculum.

Our Recommendations: Strategies to Turn Prediction into Progress

The predictive score range is useful, but its greatest value lies in providing academic guidance on how to act on these estimates. Based on our findings, we recommend the following actionable strategies with a downloadable template to help schools with implementation:

1. Utilize the Prediction for Early Guidance

We recommend using the projected SAT/ACT score ranges from the CTP to start college readiness discussions with students and families as early as 8th or 9th grade. These predicted scores serve as a data-driven benchmark to immediately inform if a student is on track using existing college readiness criteria. By referencing the tables in Tab A of the template, schools can determine a predicted range for a student’s ACT or SAT score based on their CTP results.

These predictions may also help evaluate whether CTP score profiles give students a small edge on one exam or another. While the ACT and SAT are highly similar, a student’s academic strengths on the CTP may reveal they are a better match for one of these tests. Choosing the exam best aligned to their academic strengths might reduce stress and anxiety or increase motivation to engage in future preparation activities.

2. Implement the Unit-of-Analysis Intervention

The detailed CTP reports allow for a proactive, three-tiered intervention strategy to pinpoint and address academic gaps:

• Tier 1 (Broad): Review subtest scores and norms to make relative comparisons of performance for each academic area (e.g., Mathematics).
• Tier 2 (Specific Content): For any underperforming subtest, review content mastery scores to find areas for additional learning on specific content strands (e.g., Geometry vs. Data Analysis).
• Tier 3 (Deepest Dive): Go a level deeper to analyze item performance against the ERB learning standards that underlie those content strands, addressing the most fundamental knowledge gaps.

By using this unit-of-analysis approach—from a high-level prediction down to specific learning standards—schools can transform CTP data into a comprehensive roadmap for college preparation.

Conclusion: From Prediction to Preparation

The evidence from our research is clear: middle school CTP assessments are far more than a simple academic check-up. They are powerful leading indicators that provide a remarkably clear forecast of a student’s college readiness trajectory. We can see years in advance where a student is likely to land on exams like the SAT and ACT with a high degree of confidence.

However, the true value of this predictive power isn’t just in knowing a potential score. Our study’s ultimate goal is to empower educators and parents to use this information to provide meaningful academic guidance. By transforming a statistically sound prediction into an actionable plan, we can help every student achieve their full potential. The data shows that we can predict future challenges with remarkable accuracy. The real question is, how will families and schools use this knowledge to help students improve their learning and college readiness even earlier than they do today?

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Written by Glenn Milewski, ERB Chief Program Officer,
and Adrienne Hu, ERB Director of Research and Development

Read the full report on how ERB assessments can be a powerful predictor of a student’s college-readiness trajectory on MyERB.